Throughout the semester, you work with incomplete information. Learning to estimate your complete-course grade from incomplete data is essential.
Understanding Your Grade Completion
Before you can accurately estimate, determine what percentage of your final grade is already determined. A 75% on one-third of your coursework tells you little about your final grade. A 75% on four-fifths is highly predictive.
Techniques for Accurate Estimation
The simplest technique is assuming your ungraded work performs like your graded work. However, this fails if assignment difficulty changes or your performance changes.
Category-specific estimation works better when assignment types perform differently. Calculate your average in each graded category separately, then estimate each ungraded category.
Statistical Approaches
For sophisticated estimation, track your grade over time. If your grade increased 1 point weekly for four weeks, extrapolate that trend.
For larger ungraded assignments, use available feedback. "Solid understanding" suggests B-level work (80-85%). "Needs improvement" suggests C-level (70-79%).
Adjusting for Academic Reality
When estimating, don't ignore personal factors. If you're usually scoring 82% but dealing with issues, estimate conservatively at 78-80%.
Using Your Estimates
If your estimate is 78% and you want a B (80%), you need strong remaining performance. Use estimates to set realistic targets rather than impossible ones.
Handling Changing Information
Your estimates become more accurate as more assignments are graded. Update weekly. By finals week, use precise calculations instead of estimates.